Research Interests
(Global Research)
My group focuses on improving our understanding of the meteorology around the coastal margins of North America and the atmospheric predictability in these regions. Many near-shore phenomena such as coastal fronts, land/sea breeze circulations, marine clouds/fog, and cyclonic storms interacting with coastal terrain are frequently difficult to forecast. This difficulty arises because of inadequate understanding of the physical mechanisms, deficiencies in model physics, relatively coarse resolution in operational model ensembles, and relatively sparse observations over the oceans. Using conventional data, field observations, and mesoscale models (Penn State-NCAR MM5 and Weather Research and Forecasting model), my research has explores many types of coastal atmospheric circulations and precipitation structures over both the West and East coasts of the U.S.
Terrain-Atmosphere Coastal Flows and Precipitation
My research along the U.S. West Coast results from my active participation in major field programs such as COAST (Dec. 1995), PACJET (Jan. 2001), and IMPROVE (Dec. 2001), which were designed to collect high resolution radar and in situ observations of coastal flows and orographic precipitation structures using the NOAA P3 aircraft. My group was recently involved in a NSF collaborative project to use synthetic aperture radar (SAR) wind data at 100-m resolution and high-resolution model simulations to improve our understanding of barrier jets along the southeastern Alaskan coast. We participated in a field study (SARJET) in October 2004 to investigate and barriers jets over southeastern coastal Alaska using the Wyoming King-Air research aircraft. This research has revealed several different types of barrier jets, including those impacted by coastal gap flows and others with sharp front-like upstream boundaries, which have been simulated with WRF and MM5. Field observations are combined with numerous idealized experiments to better understand orographic precipitation and barrier jets. Sponsor: National Science Foundation
Moist Physics Improvements
My group's precipitation verification studies over terrain using the MM5 and WRF models have noted several problems with the bulk microphysical parameterizations, which have sparked numerous field campaigns during the past several years, such as IPEX over the Wasatch Mountains of Utah in February 2000 and IMPROVE over the Oregon Cascades in December 2001 (http://improve.atmos.washington.edu/). We are analyzing data from these field experiments as well as vertically-pointing radar data at Portland, OR and Stony Brook, NY in order to evaluate and improve cloud processes in mesoscale models. We are currently developing a new bulk microphysical parameterization for WRF. Sponsor: National Science Foundation
Cyclone Structure and Predictability
Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can be difficult to predict in operational models, especially in more data sparse coastal zone areas. There has been little objective verification of cyclones in operational models. We have been verifying cyclones in the NCEP operational models and ensembles around North America and surrounding oceans using an automated cyclone tracking algorithm. The predictability of these cyclones can be linked to particular flow regimes. This research has illustrated some systematic cyclone errors in the models and deficiencies in ensembles. Another forecast problem is the mesoscale precipitation banding, such as the snowbands to the northwest of the cyclone within the comma head. High resolution observations and model simulations are used to better understand the dynamical evolution of these snowbands. Landfalling tropical storms over the Northeast U.S. have been simulated to better understand extratropical transition (ET) and storm surge evolution around Long Island. Sponsors: NOAA-SeaGrant; UCAR/COMET
Convection over the Northeast U.S.
There have been numerous studies of severe convection over the central U.S., but relatively little work over the Northeast U.S. We are constructing the first comprehensive climatology of convective frequency and structures over the Northeast using over 10 years of radar data. Case studies using the WRF model are helping us better understand where convection typically triggers, and how it evolves approaches a coastal-urban environment, such as New York City (NYC). Idealized simulations using a cloud model are also used to understand physical processes. Sponsor: National Science Foundation
Real-time Mesoscale Modeling and Applications
My group has developed a real-time MM5 and WRF prediction system for the Northeast U.S. Since 1999, we have been running the MM5 twice-daily in real-time down to 4-km grid spacing for a region surrounding Long Island (http://atmos.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt). The output is sent directly to several NWS offices across the Northeast for use in their daily forecasts. This real-time modeling effort, the first of its kind around the New York Metropolitan Region, has resulted in a number of investigations of the diurnal flows and precipitation patterns around Long Island/NYC, snow bands within nor-easters, and landfalling tropical storms. Our modeling effort was expanded in 2003 to include ensemble simulations and WRF model, in which the MM5 and WRF are run approximately ~15 times per day using a 80-processor LINUX cluster (http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html). The ensemble system uses mixed physics and initial conditions, and current research is exploring various data assimilation approaches. In collaboration with the MSRC physical oceanographers, the MM5 ensemble output is used to drive ocean models (ADCIRC and FVCOM) to predict storm surge for the New York City area (http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu). The MM5/WRF ensemble forecasts at 12-km grid spacing are also used for the fire weather prediction research over the Northeast U.S., air dispersion modeling around NYC, hydrological predictions, sail weather forecasting for the America's Cup (2007), and energy load forecast for Long Island. Sponsors: UCAR/COMET; Urban Dispersion Program (Homeland Security); BMW-Oracle Racing; Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.; U.S. Forest Service; NYSERDA; NOAA-SeaGrant
Publications
Colle, B. A., and M. E. Charles, 2010: Spatial distribution and evolution of extratropical cyclone errors over North America and adjacent oceans in the NCEP Global Forecast System model. Accepted to Wea. Forecasting.
Lin, Y., L. Donner, and B. A. Colle, 2010: Parameterization of riming degree and its impact on ice fall speed using ARM data. In press to Mon. Wea. Rev..
Lin, Y., and B. A., Colle, 2010: A new bulk microphysical scheme that includes varying degree of riming and particle habits. In press to Mon. Wea. Rev.
Murray, J., and B. Colle, 2010: A climatology of convective storms over the Northeast United States. In press to Mon. Wea. Rev.
Lombardo, K., and B. A. Colle, 2010: A climatology of convective structures over the Northeast U.S. and the associated ambient conditions. In press to Mon. Wea. Rev.
Colle, B. A., and D. Novak, 2010: New York Bight jet: Climatology and dynamical evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev.,138, 2385-2404
Novak, D., and B. A. Colle, 2010: Climatology and composite analysis of mesoscale precipitation band formation in the comma head of mid-latitude cyclones., Mon. Wea. Rev. 138, 2354-2374.
Willett, K., F. Pimenta, D. Veron, and B. Colle, 2010: Electric power from offshore wind via synoptic-scale interconnection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.0909075107.
Colle, B. A., K. Rojowsky, and F. Buonaiuto, 2010: New York City storm surges: Climatology and analysis of the wind and cyclone evolution. J. Appl. Meteor. and Climatology, 49, 85-100.
Charles, M., and B. A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm: Part 1: Comparison of the GFS and NAM models., Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1173-1190.
Charles, M., and B. A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm: Part 2: Evaluation of the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system, Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1191-1214
Novak, D., B. A. Colle, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2009: The role of moist processes in the formation and evolution of mesoscale snowbands within the comma-head of Northeast U.S. cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2662-2686.
Lin, Y., and B. A. Colle, 2009: Observed and Simulated Cloud Microphysics over the Oregon Cascades during the 4-5 December IMPROVE-2 IOP, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1372-1392.
Olson, J. B., and B. A. Colle, 2009: Three-dimensional Idealized Simulations of Barrier Jets Along the Southeastern Coast of Alaska. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 391-413.
Colle, B.A., Buonaiuto, F., Bowman, M.J., Wilson, R.E., Flood, R., Hunter, R., Mintz, A., Hill, D., 2008. New York City’s vulnerability to coastal flooding. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 89, 829–841.
Novak, D. and B. A. Colle, and S. Yuter, 2008: High resolution observations and model simulations of the life cycle of an intense mesoscale snowband., Mon. Wea. Rev.,136, 1433–1456.
Colle, B A., 2008: Two-dimensional idealized simulations of the impact of multiple windward ridges on orographic precipitation, J. Atmos. Sci. 65, 509–523.
Colle B. A., Lin Y., Medina S., Smull B., 2008: Orographic modification of convection and flow kinematics by the Oregon coastal range and Cascades during IMPROVE-2. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3894-3916.
Colle, B. A., and S. E., Yuter, 2007: The Impact of Coastal Boundaries and Small Hills on the Precipitation Distribution Across Southern Connecticut and Long Island, NY. Mon. Wea. Rev, 135, 933-954.
Olson, J., B. Colle, N. Bond, and N. Winstead, 2007: A comparison of two barrier jet events along the southeast Alaskan coast during the SARJET experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev.,135, 3642–3663.
Olson, J. B., and B. A. Colle, 2007: A Modified approach to initialize an idealized extra-tropical cyclone within a mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1614-1624.
Jones, M., B. A. Colle, and J. Tongue, 2007: Evaluation of a short-range ensemble forecast system over the Northeast U.S., Wea. Forecasting, 22, 36-55.
Winstead, N. S., B. A. Colle, N. Bond, G. Young, J. Olson, K. Loescher, F. Monaldo, D. Thompson, and W. Pichel, 2006: Barrier Jets: Combining SAR Remote Sensing, Field Observations and Models to Better Understand Coastal Flows in the Gulf of Alaska. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 787-800.
Novak, D. and B. A. Colle, 2006: Observations of Multiple Sea Breeze Boundaries during an Unseasonably Warm Day in Metropolitan New York City, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87,169-174.
Loescher, K. A., G. S. Young, B. A. Colle, and N. S. Windstead, 2006: Climatology of barrier jets along the Alaskan coast, Part 1: Spatial and temporal distributions. Mon. Wea. Rev, 134, 437-453.
Colle, B. A., K. A. Loescher, G. S. Young, N. S. Winstead, 2006: Climatology of barrier jets along the Alaskan coast, Part 2: Large-scale and sounding composites. Mon. Wea. Rev.,134, 454-477
Colle, B. A., J. B., Wolfe, W. J. Steenburgh, D. E. Kingsmill, J. A. Cox, and J. C. Shafer, 2005: High resolution simulations and microphysical validation of an orographic precipitation event over the Wasatch Mountains during IPEX IOP3. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 2947-2971.
Garvert, M., B. A. Colle, and C. F. Mass, 2005: The 13-14 December IMPROVE event: Part I, Synoptic and mesoscale comparison of the observed structures with a mesoscale model simulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3474-3492.
Garvert, M., C. Woods, B. A. Colle, M. Stoelinga, P. V. Hobbs, and C. F. Mass, 2005: The 13-14 December IMPROVE event: Part II, Evaluation of the cloud and precipitation structures in the MM5, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3520-3534.
Colle, B. A., M. Garvert, J. Wolfe, and C. F. Mass, 2005: The 13-14 December IMPROVE event: Part III, Microphysical budgets and sensitivities for the 13-14 December IMPROVE event. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3535-3558.
Cox, J.A., W.J. Steenburgh, D.E. Kingsmill, Jason and B.A. Colle, 2005: Kinematic structure of a Wasatch mountain winter storm during IPEX IOP3, Mon. Wea. Rev.,133, 521-544.
Colle, B. A., and Y. Zeng, 2004: Bulk microphysical sensitivities within the MM5 for orographic precipitation: Part I, the Sierra 1986 event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2780-2801.
Colle, B. A. and Y. Zeng, 2004: Bulk microphysical sensitivities within the MM5 for orographic precipitation: Part II, Impact of barrier width and freezing level. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2802-2815.
Roebber, P.J., D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud, 2004: Towards improved prediction: High resolution and ensemble modeling in operations., Wea. Forecasting, 19, 936-949.
Colle, B. A., 2004: Sensitivity of orographic precipitation to changing ambient conditions and terrain geometries: An idealized modeling perspective. J. Atmos. Sci.,61, 588-606.
Colle, B. A., 2003: Numerical simulations of the extratropical transition of Floyd (1999): Structural evolution and responsible mechanisms for the heavy rainfall over the Northeast U.S. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2905-2926.
Stoelinga, M., P.V. Hobbs, C.F. Mass, J.D. Locatelli, B. A. Colle, and co-authors, 2003: Improvement of microphysical parameterizations through observational verification experiments (IMPROVE). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1807-1826.
Colle, B.A., J. B. Olson, and J. S. Tongue, 2003: Multi-season verification of the MM5: Part I, Comparison with the Eta over the Central and Eastern U.S. and impact of MM5 resolution. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 431-457.
Colle, B.A., J. B. Olson, and J. S. Tongue, 2003: Multi-season verification of the MM5: Part II, Evaluation of high resolution precipitation forecasts over the Northeast U.S. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 458-480.
Colle, B.A., 2002: Cold air damming. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, San Diego, CA, 504-509.
Colle, B.A., B.F. Smull, and M-J. Yang, 2002: Numerical simulations of a landfalling cold front observed during COAST: Rapid evolution and responsible mechanisms. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 1945-1966.
Mass, C.F., D. Ovens, K. Westrick., and B. A. Colle, 2002: Does increasing resolution produce better forecasts? The results of two years of real-time numerical weather prediction over the Pacific Northwest. Accepted to Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 407-430.
Colle, B.A., C.F. Mass, and David Ovens, 2001: Evaluation of the timing and strength of MM5 and Eta surface trough passages over the eastern Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 553-572.
Colle, B.A., C.F. Mass, and K.W. Westrick, 2000: MM5 precipitation verification over the Pacific Northwest during the1997-1999 cool seasons, Wea. Forecasting 15,730-744.
Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 2000: High resolution observations and numerical simulations of easterly gap flow through the Strait of Juan de Fuca on 9-10 December 1995. Mon. Wea. Rev. 128, 2398-2422.
Doyle, J. D., D. R. Durran, C. Chen, B. A. Colle, M. Georgelin, V. Grubisic, W. R. Hsu, C. Y. Huang, D. Landau, Y. L. Lin, G. S. Poulos, W. Y. Sun, D. B. Weber, M. G. Wurtele, and M. Xue, 2000: An intercomparison of model predicted wave breaking for the 11 January 1972 Boulder windstorm. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 901-914.
Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 2000: The 5-9 February 1996 flooding event over the Pacific Northwest: sensitivity studies and evaluation of the MM5 precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev, 128, 593-617.
Westrick, K. J., C. F. Mass, and B. A. Colle, 1999: The limitations of the WSR-88D radar network for quantitative precipitation measurement over the coastal western United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 80, 2289-2298.
Colle, B. A., C. F. Mass, and B. F. Smull, 1999: An observational and numerical study of a cold front interacting with the Olympic Mountains during COAST IOP 5. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127,1310-1334.
Colle, B. A., K. J. Westrick, and C. F. Mass, 1999: Evaluation of MM5 and Eta-10 precipitation forecasts over the Pacific Northwest during the cool season. Wea. Forecasting. 14, 137-154.
Steenburgh, W. J., D. M. Schultz, and B. A. Colle, 1998: The structure and evolution of gap outflow over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mon. Wea. Rev. 126, 2673-2691.
Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 1998: Windstorms along the western side of the Washington Cascade Mountains, part I: an observational and modeling study of the 12 February 1995 event. Mon. Wea. Rev. 126, 28-52.
Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 1998: Windstorms along the western side of the Washington Cascade Mountains, part II: characteristics of past events and three-dimensional idealized simulations. Mon. Wea. Rev. 126, 53-71.
Bond, N. A., C. F. Mass, B. F. Smull, R. A. Houze, M.-J. Yang, B. A. Colle, S. A. Braun, M. A. Shapiro, B. R. Colman, P. J.Neiman, J. E. Overland, W. D. Neff, and J. D. Doyle, 1997: The coastal observation and simulation with topography (COAST) experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 78, 1941-1955.
Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 1996: An observational and modeling study of the interaction of low-level southwesterly flow with the Olympic Mountains during COAST IOP 4. Mon. Wea. Rev. 124, 2152-2175.
Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 1995: Structural evolution of northerly cold surges along the eastern side of the Rocky Mountains. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123,2577-2610.
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